What should this mean….really?
The phrase “we’ll proceed at risk” is often rolled out at engineering and design reviews, but what does it mean to ‘proceed at risk’, and what steps should be taken to maintain and achieve the required level of safety?
Unfortunately, ‘proceed at risk’ often means no more than “I know we haven’t done it yet, and we should do that soon, but let’s crack on anyway”… or words to that effect. Whether it is a design activity which hasn’t completed, or an analysis yet to mature (or sometimes even start), the phrase is in danger of becoming a poor catchphrase, or cliché – an oft used phatic expression that coagulates those present into a dull acceptance of the reality of project and programme pressures.
Proceeding at risk is not a preposterous proposition, indeed it is often vital for the successful amalgamation of complex systems and complex systems of systems which are designed and or procured by different teams, or different organisation which are maturing at different paces. Proceeding without every required artefact at the ideal maturity state is…well…just engineering, really. So what should we mean by agreeing to proceed at risk?
If, as a quorate group of suitably qualified, experienced and empowered people (note that I prefer SQEEP to SQEP) brought together to collectively decide on the efficacy of a design or phase review, you decide whether or not to proceed to the next phase, you have done so on the basis of facts laid before you. The data, and information has been transposed into knowledge (I’ll be discussing the difference between the three in an article soon). This knowledge is the basis upon which you formed your decision. So if proceeding at risk was the answer, the first consideration is “what was the question?”
If we are truly proceeding at risk, the risk(s) must be clearly articulated and understood by all. I’ll discuss risk definitions in future articles, but for now, let us accept that risk is the combination of likelihood, severity, and the associated uncertainty with both. There isn’t but one question which can succinctly answer this. Instead, as stakeholders forming a quorate opinion, we must consider the following:
- What artefact or activity is not sufficiently mature?
- Why not (maybe even try the ‘five why’s’ to discover why not)?
- When is the artefact or activity forecast to complete?
- What is the impact (schedule and project) of waiting until it is of sufficient maturity?
- Why isn’t it acceptable to wait?
- What is the imperative(s) for proceeding at risk?
- Are they really imperatives?
- What is the risk of proceeding – explicitly?
- What is the impact if the risk manifests (severity)?
- How likely is it that the risk will materialise (likelihood)? By severity and likelihood, I’m not advocating for some kind of quasi-quantitative figures (but great if you have accurate ones), but there should be some meaningful means by which this is articulated and understood by all.
- When could the risk manifest – and is that acceptable (and if so, on what basis)?
- What is being done to minimise the chance of the risk manifesting?
- Who is owning the risk(s)?
- Are they the appropriate and entitled risk owner?
- Do they understand the risk they hold accountability for?
Satisfied that the correct decision is indeed to proceed at risk, with compelling answers to all of these questions, we now need a credible plan to recover from the risk we hold. This requires a documented understanding of
- Who the risk owner is, and confirmation of their eligibility
- What actions are required to recover from the identified risk
- Action owners (and their acceptance and eligibility)
- Action completion deadlines (accepted by the action owners), and
- Metrics (or similar) which will signal that the risk is no longer extant.
If all of the above conditions cannot be met, and the questions have not received satisfactory answers, you will not be proceeding at risk, you will be proceeding blindly and glibly.
Proceed at risk, by all means. Just make sure due diligence has been done, and has been seen to be done. Lead by example.
